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Red192
325061.1
167872.0
29921.8
Blue234
2122B52.9
212265.7
617430.7
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19818850100150250300350400192234

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.00.2
72.272.0
Auto17.2
Teleop48.2
End6.7
red by 6.4
65.70.7
64.965.7
Auto15.9
Teleop36.6
End13.1
Second
61.10.2
61.361.1
Auto16.6
Teleop35.6
End8.9
red by 8.3
52.90.8
52.152.9
Auto17.5
Teleop29.1
End6.3
Third
299
#32
21.80.2
22.021.8
Auto9.7
Teleop10.7
End1.5
blue by 8.9
6174
#15
30.70.7
30.030.7
Auto9.2
Teleop18.6
End2.8