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Red230
23062.8
13359.3
91041.6
Blue225
12044.8
248159.6
33061.0
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2111970100300400500230225

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
230
#3
62.80.4
62.362.7
Auto16.0
Teleop43.2
End3.6
red by 1.8
330
#2
61.00.3
60.360.6
Auto15.2
Teleop35.4
End10.5
Second
133
#1
59.30.4
58.959.3
Auto18.0
Teleop30.8
End10.5
blue by 0.2
59.60.3
58.959.2
Auto20.0
Teleop33.0
End6.6
Third
910
#45
41.60.4
41.241.6
Auto18.1
Teleop18.4
End5.1
blue by 3.2
120
#62
44.80.3
44.144.4
Auto10.3
Teleop27.2
End7.3