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Red100
196728.8
490431.7
502614.1
Blue184
167875.9
501228.7
432.0
2%Model gave it98%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions571480100200250100184

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4904
#35
31.71.8
30.031.7
Auto10.4
Teleop18.2
End3.1
blue by 44.2
75.92.6
73.776.2
Auto20.4
Teleop49.2
End6.3
Second
1967
#23
28.81.8
26.428.2
Auto5.9
Teleop16.7
End6.2
blue by 3.2
4
#10
32.02.6
30.533.1
Auto8.3
Teleop16.6
End7.2
Third
5026
#32
14.11.8
12.314.1
Auto2.5
Teleop11.2
End0.3
blue by 14.6
5012
#34
28.72.6
26.529.1
Auto3.4
Teleop22.7
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
67%Breach oddsEarned96%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
1%Capture oddsMissed25%Capture oddsEarned