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Red122
173138.9
33932.9
141330.2
Blue151
450531.8
424232.1
237736.0
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12813350100150200122151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1731
#17
38.90.0
39.639.6
Auto10.2
Teleop24.4
End4.3
red by 3.0
2377
#15
36.00.1
36.136.3
Auto9.0
Teleop16.3
End10.6
Second
339
#2
32.90.0
33.633.5
Auto10.3
Teleop19.1
End3.5
red by 0.8
32.10.1
32.232.4
Auto11.0
Teleop16.0
End5.0
Third
1413
#24
30.20.0
30.930.8
Auto8.4
Teleop16.3
End5.5
blue by 1.6
4505
#13
31.80.1
32.032.1
Auto8.8
Teleop19.0
End4.1