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Red101
17730.6
55831.8
568619.4
Blue84
217022.1
283621.5
199127.1
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions108885015010184

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
558
#1
31.80.4
31.931.5
Auto6.7
Teleop20.5
End4.5
red by 4.7
1991
#14
27.10.2
27.327.1
Auto8.4
Teleop14.9
End3.8
Second
177
#3
30.60.4
30.730.3
Auto7.7
Teleop18.8
End4.2
red by 8.5
2170
#27
22.10.2
22.322.1
Auto3.6
Teleop14.7
End3.8
Third
5686
#16
19.40.4
19.419.1
Auto6.0
Teleop11.3
End2.1
blue by 2.1
2836
#12
21.50.2
21.621.5
Auto-0.3
Teleop15.6
End6.2