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Red122
491026.4
297439.8
559412.9
Blue101
168320.7
474929.3
602317.4
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions104804060120140160122101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.80.2
39.539.7
Auto8.2
Teleop26.4
End5.2
red by 10.5
29.30.2
29.629.8
Auto6.9
Teleop18.1
End4.3
Second
26.40.2
26.126.3
Auto7.1
Teleop14.1
End5.2
red by 5.7
1683
#20
20.70.2
21.021.2
Auto5.2
Teleop11.7
End3.8
Third
5594
#25
12.90.2
12.612.8
Auto3.1
Teleop7.7
End2.1
blue by 4.4
6023
#15
17.40.2
17.717.9
Auto3.7
Teleop9.6
End4.0