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Red119
494123.6
418928.9
491029.8
Blue163
241543.8
174639.8
446841.3
3%Model gave it97%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions90182050150200250300119163

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4910
#21
29.80.0
29.829.8
Auto7.3
Teleop19.8
End2.6
blue by 14.0
43.80.0
43.843.8
Auto9.8
Teleop29.1
End4.9
Second
28.90.0
28.928.9
Auto10.7
Teleop13.1
End5.1
blue by 12.4
4468
#15
41.30.0
41.341.3
Auto11.7
Teleop23.2
End6.4
Third
23.60.0
23.623.6
Auto7.2
Teleop12.7
End3.7
blue by 16.2
39.80.0
39.839.8
Auto9.0
Teleop22.8
End8.0