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Red118
164037.3
7138.7
301533.7
Blue154
161953.8
250244.6
245159.4
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions115135050100150200118154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71
#28
38.70.2
40.040.2
Auto7.1
Teleop21.1
End10.5
blue by 20.7
2451
#11
59.41.7
50.151.8
Auto17.6
Teleop33.7
End8.1
Second
1640
#64
37.30.2
39.139.4
Auto8.3
Teleop23.7
End5.3
blue by 16.6
53.81.7
43.244.8
Auto17.5
Teleop29.3
End7.1
Third
3015
#60
33.70.2
35.735.9
Auto9.7
Teleop19.9
End4.1
blue by 10.9
2502
#27
44.61.7
35.437.0
Auto10.2
Teleop25.2
End9.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
98%Breach oddsEarned95%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
78%Capture oddsMissed17%Capture oddsEarned