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Red116
108022.8
428629.7
658415.6
Blue109
188539.1
62012.7
11629.8
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions81107050150200250300116109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
29.70.0
29.729.7
Auto9.5
Teleop14.9
End5.2
blue by 9.4
1885
#20
39.10.0
39.139.1
Auto7.8
Teleop24.8
End6.5
Second
1080
#12
22.80.0
22.822.8
Auto7.1
Teleop12.0
End3.7
blue by 7.0
116
#19
29.80.0
29.829.8
Auto7.4
Teleop15.0
End7.4
Third
6584
#17
15.60.0
15.615.6
Auto4.1
Teleop8.8
End2.7
red by 3.0
620
#28
12.70.0
12.712.7
Auto2.9
Teleop9.0
End0.8