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Red170
276744.8
362052.4
562222.6
Blue130
247435.6
516238.9
432720.5
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15410450200250170130

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.40.1
53.153.2
Auto10.5
Teleop35.4
End6.4
red by 13.5
38.90.3
38.839.1
Auto12.4
Teleop17.0
End9.4
Second
44.80.1
45.545.6
Auto8.6
Teleop30.3
End5.9
red by 9.2
2474
#12
35.60.3
35.435.8
Auto9.6
Teleop20.5
End5.5
Third
5622
#22
22.60.1
23.323.3
Auto8.5
Teleop11.0
End3.1
red by 2.1
4327
#32
20.50.3
20.420.7
Auto7.9
Teleop9.5
End3.1