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Red115
171829.1
213732.7
24523.7
Blue112
102334.4
365529.0
504826.0
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1061116080100120140160180115112

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
32.70.2
32.632.8
Auto10.7
Teleop17.8
End4.2
blue by 1.7
34.40.3
34.734.4
Auto8.3
Teleop19.8
End6.4
Second
29.10.2
29.029.3
Auto8.0
Teleop16.6
End4.5
red by 0.1
29.00.3
28.928.6
Auto9.6
Teleop16.7
End2.8
Third
245
#17
23.70.2
23.623.8
Auto3.8
Teleop15.9
End4.0
blue by 2.3
5048
#15
26.00.3
25.925.6
Auto7.9
Teleop15.9
End2.2