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Red117
313041.9
217536.7
304231.5
Blue141
219436.8
282637.2
257425.4
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1381236080100160180200220117141

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.90.3
42.442.1
Auto15.8
Teleop18.9
End7.2
red by 4.7
37.20.1
37.837.6
Auto7.6
Teleop24.0
End5.6
Second
36.70.3
37.336.9
Auto10.7
Teleop22.1
End4.0
blue by 0.1
2194
#12
36.80.1
37.437.2
Auto11.2
Teleop17.6
End8.0
Third
3042
#28
31.50.3
32.031.7
Auto8.9
Teleop16.1
End6.5
red by 6.1
2574
#42
25.40.1
25.925.8
Auto6.4
Teleop14.8
End4.1