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Red155
313041.9
217536.7
304231.5
Blue110
219436.8
282637.2
257425.4
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13712350100150200155110

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.90.1
42.141.9
Auto15.8
Teleop18.9
End7.2
red by 4.7
37.20.3
37.537.2
Auto7.6
Teleop24.0
End5.6
Second
36.70.1
36.936.7
Auto10.7
Teleop22.1
End4.0
blue by 0.1
2194
#12
36.80.3
37.136.8
Auto11.2
Teleop17.6
End8.0
Third
3042
#28
31.50.1
31.631.5
Auto8.9
Teleop16.1
End6.5
red by 6.1
2574
#42
25.40.3
25.725.4
Auto6.4
Teleop14.8
End4.1