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Red170
177534.5
198652.9
445520.7
Blue107
178528.7
495930.8
573029.8
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13410780100120160180200170107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.90.3
52.652.9
Auto16.2
Teleop27.7
End8.9
red by 22.1
30.80.2
31.030.8
Auto8.5
Teleop16.9
End5.3
Second
34.50.3
34.234.6
Auto7.6
Teleop19.6
End7.3
red by 4.7
5730
#16
29.80.2
30.029.8
Auto8.7
Teleop16.1
End4.9
Third
4455
#26
20.70.4
20.420.8
Auto6.5
Teleop11.8
End2.5
blue by 8.0
28.70.2
28.928.7
Auto8.8
Teleop15.1
End4.8