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Red116
350626.8
429030.7
551116.1
Blue101
150132.9
265530.8
333118.9
32%Model gave it68%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions88100406080120140116101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.70.5
30.230.7
Auto10.2
Teleop15.7
End4.9
blue by 2.2
1501
#13
32.90.0
32.932.9
Auto10.1
Teleop19.3
End3.5
Second
3506
#10
26.80.5
26.326.8
Auto8.7
Teleop12.7
End5.5
blue by 3.9
30.80.0
30.830.8
Auto9.6
Teleop16.9
End4.3
Third
5511
#27
16.10.5
15.616.1
Auto4.4
Teleop9.6
End2.2
blue by 2.7
3331
#17
18.90.0
18.918.9
Auto6.0
Teleop9.6
End3.2