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Red128
7831.9
23832.7
360920.2
Blue107
88528.8
21323.9
9520.7
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions113854060100140160180128107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
238
#1
32.70.0
32.732.7
Auto10.1
Teleop17.9
End4.7
red by 3.9
885
#9
28.80.3
28.528.8
Auto6.4
Teleop16.4
End6.0
Second
78
#4
31.90.0
31.931.8
Auto8.5
Teleop18.3
End5.0
red by 8.0
213
#6
23.90.3
23.523.9
Auto6.7
Teleop14.3
End2.9
Third
3609
#21
20.20.0
20.220.1
Auto5.6
Teleop10.9
End3.7
blue by 0.5
95
#17
20.70.3
20.320.7
Auto6.4
Teleop11.1
End3.2