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Red52
29526.7
47929.6
283921.6
Blue114
84242.8
586922.8
504923.6
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions68692040608010012052114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
295
#27
26.71.8
28.526.7
Auto9.7
Teleop13.6
End3.4
blue by 16.0
842
#11
42.83.1
36.339.5
Auto10.1
Teleop26.4
End6.3
Second
2839
#36
21.61.6
18.917.3
Auto5.8
Teleop13.1
End2.7
blue by 1.9
5049
#28
23.65.2
16.221.4
Auto7.5
Teleop13.9
End2.2
Third
4792
#49
9.62.7
18.616.0
Auto1.9
Teleop6.0
End1.7
blue by 13.2
5869
#19
22.83.5
14.618.1
Auto4.4
Teleop15.2
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
51%Breach oddsMissed57%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
0%Capture oddsMissed0%Capture oddsEarned