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Red115
179638.9
573628.2
456723.4
Blue125
445827.7
509929.7
501625.1
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11490406080100140160180115125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
38.90.1
39.539.5
Auto12.9
Teleop21.7
End4.4
red by 9.2
5099
#11
29.70.6
28.028.6
Auto5.6
Teleop15.7
End8.4
Second
28.20.1
28.928.9
Auto9.3
Teleop13.3
End5.5
red by 0.5
4458
#22
27.70.6
26.026.6
Auto10.5
Teleop9.8
End7.4
Third
4567
#34
23.40.1
24.124.1
Auto8.9
Teleop9.3
End5.1
blue by 1.7
5016
#35
25.10.5
23.724.2
Auto8.4
Teleop12.7
End4.0