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Red49
14525.6
37111.0
409321.5
Blue92
587913.5
596418.7
35953.7
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5980020401001204992

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
145
#24
25.61.3
24.523.2
Auto6.4
Teleop15.1
End4.1
blue by 28.1
359
#1
53.71.2
51.852.9
Auto14.4
Teleop32.0
End7.3
Second
4093
#21
21.51.3
20.919.6
Auto11.6
Teleop7.6
End2.3
red by 2.8
5964
#23
18.71.9
11.513.4
Auto6.1
Teleop10.7
End1.9
Third
371
#25
11.01.3
15.213.9
Auto3.4
Teleop4.5
End3.1
blue by 2.5
5879
#32
13.51.9
11.413.3
Auto4.5
Teleop6.2
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
61%Breach oddsMissed49%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
0%Capture oddsMissed1%Capture oddsMissed