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Red200
205660.4
111456.0
591223.4
Blue210
61048.9
124162.1
356021.0
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions184169050100150200250300200210

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.40.0
60.460.4
Auto17.6
Teleop31.7
End11.1
blue by 1.7
62.10.5
61.562.1
Auto16.0
Teleop37.9
End8.2
Second
56.00.0
56.056.0
Auto19.5
Teleop25.5
End11.0
red by 7.1
610
#11
48.90.5
48.348.9
Auto10.7
Teleop27.9
End10.3
Third
5912
#26
23.40.0
23.423.4
Auto8.7
Teleop12.4
End2.3
red by 2.4
3560
#27
21.00.5
20.521.0
Auto8.4
Teleop8.9
End3.7