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Qual 112016 Waterloo Regional
Red106
205660.4
503321.7
591223.4
Blue117
128534.4
491734.7
86524.6
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1118750100150200106117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2056
#2
60.40.2
64.2→64.0
Auto17.6
Teleop31.7
End11.1
red by 25.7
4917
#12
34.70.6
29.3→29.9
Auto15.2
Teleop16.6
End2.8
Second
5912
#26
23.40.4
21.1→20.8
Auto8.7
Teleop12.4
End2.3
blue by 11.0
1285
#5
34.40.6
30.6→31.2
Auto8.5
Teleop19.1
End6.9
Third
5033
#17
21.70.4
19.0→18.6
Auto6.8
Teleop10.7
End4.2
blue by 2.9
865
#20
24.60.6
28.3→28.9
Auto5.5
Teleop15.3
End3.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
86%Breach oddsEarned77%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
4%Capture oddsMissed4%Capture oddsMissed