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Red107
131842.2
290733.8
294428.9
Blue102
491528.6
367436.4
412530.4
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9886050150107102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.20.9
40.941.9
Auto11.1
Teleop26.7
End4.4
red by 5.8
3674
#46
36.41.1
30.531.6
Auto7.8
Teleop23.1
End5.5
Second
2907
#29
33.80.9
27.128.1
Auto10.2
Teleop18.4
End5.1
red by 3.4
4125
#38
30.41.1
30.131.3
Auto9.6
Teleop16.7
End4.0
Third
2944
#43
28.90.9
25.126.0
Auto8.4
Teleop16.4
End4.1
red by 0.3
4915
#55
28.61.1
24.325.4
Auto8.7
Teleop16.5
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
95%Breach oddsEarned84%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
1%Capture oddsMissed0%Capture oddsEarned