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Qual 72016 Tesla Division
Red110
245149.6
78126.7
448843.6
Blue107
567726.9
236336.8
315825.8
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12889050100150200250110107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2451
#2
49.60.6
47.6→47.1
Auto12.6
Teleop30.5
End6.6
red by 12.8
2363
#40
36.80.3
36.6→36.9
Auto8.7
Teleop19.8
End8.3
Second
4488
#7
43.60.6
43.5→42.9
Auto10.7
Teleop26.6
End6.2
red by 16.7
5677
#54
26.90.3
25.8→26.1
Auto7.1
Teleop16.0
End3.8
Third
781
#62
26.70.6
27.7→27.1
Auto6.5
Teleop16.2
End4.1
red by 0.9
3158
#69
25.80.3
29.5→29.8
Auto7.8
Teleop16.0
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
96%Breach oddsEarned93%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
18%Capture oddsEarned5%Capture oddsMissed