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Red160
142542.3
446941.3
378620.6
Blue74
321925.8
413129.2
406023.6
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1329405015020025016074

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.30.3
41.942.2
Auto9.8
Teleop19.7
End12.8
red by 13.1
29.20.2
29.729.5
Auto7.8
Teleop16.3
End5.0
Second
41.30.3
40.941.2
Auto8.8
Teleop27.7
End4.8
red by 15.5
25.80.2
26.326.1
Auto4.5
Teleop16.2
End5.1
Third
3786
#18
20.60.3
20.220.5
Auto7.8
Teleop8.0
End4.8
blue by 3.0
4060
#19
23.60.2
24.123.9
Auto8.7
Teleop10.8
End4.1