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Red134
366336.7
323843.9
56820.4
Blue99
94828.5
468321.9
357427.5
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions131915010015020013499

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.90.2
44.244.0
Auto10.6
Teleop28.2
End5.1
red by 15.4
948
#18
28.50.0
28.228.2
Auto8.8
Teleop15.2
End4.5
Second
36.70.2
37.036.8
Auto9.7
Teleop22.1
End4.8
red by 9.2
3574
#13
27.50.0
27.227.3
Auto8.9
Teleop14.0
End4.5
Third
568
#32
20.40.2
20.720.5
Auto6.9
Teleop11.9
End1.5
blue by 1.5
4683
#11
21.90.0
21.621.6
Auto8.2
Teleop9.8
End3.9