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Red124
366336.7
323843.9
56820.4
Blue163
292829.8
420529.1
407725.1
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions129100406080120140160180200124163

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.90.1
44.044.0
Auto10.6
Teleop28.2
End5.1
red by 14.1
29.80.4
29.129.5
Auto9.3
Teleop16.2
End4.3
Second
36.70.1
36.736.8
Auto9.7
Teleop22.1
End4.8
red by 7.6
29.10.4
28.428.7
Auto7.5
Teleop16.7
End4.9
Third
568
#32
20.40.1
20.520.5
Auto6.9
Teleop11.9
End1.5
blue by 4.7
4077
#19
25.10.4
24.324.7
Auto6.1
Teleop14.8
End4.2