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Red126
366334.2
252230.9
491521.3
Blue103
491131.6
382628.6
420523.0
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions108104708090100120130140126103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.20.0
34.134.1
Auto6.8
Teleop22.1
End5.3
red by 2.6
31.60.0
31.731.7
Auto7.2
Teleop18.8
End5.6
Second
30.90.0
30.830.8
Auto10.5
Teleop15.6
End4.8
red by 2.3
28.60.0
28.728.7
Auto7.8
Teleop16.4
End4.4
Third
4915
#33
21.30.0
21.321.3
Auto7.3
Teleop10.9
End3.1
blue by 1.7
4205
#14
23.00.0
23.123.1
Auto5.0
Teleop13.0
End5.0