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Red134
191851.6
550232.0
571026.6
Blue167
205440.1
387530.2
345241.4
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions133152050100200250300350134167

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.60.0
51.651.6
Auto13.5
Teleop27.9
End10.2
red by 10.2
3452
#17
41.40.0
41.441.4
Auto7.8
Teleop27.3
End6.3
Second
32.00.0
32.032.0
Auto8.3
Teleop12.5
End11.1
blue by 8.1
2054
#31
40.10.0
40.140.1
Auto10.3
Teleop26.2
End3.6
Third
5710
#21
26.60.0
26.626.6
Auto8.3
Teleop12.5
End5.8
blue by 3.6
3875
#10
30.20.0
30.230.2
Auto10.1
Teleop16.5
End3.6