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Red107
354644.1
191851.6
240525.3
Blue104
357237.8
423730.7
205440.1
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12710950150200107104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.60.0
51.651.6
Auto13.5
Teleop27.9
End10.2
red by 11.4
2054
#31
40.10.0
40.140.1
Auto10.3
Teleop26.2
End3.6
Second
44.10.0
44.144.1
Auto14.1
Teleop24.9
End5.1
red by 6.3
37.80.0
37.837.8
Auto9.6
Teleop24.1
End4.1
Third
2405
#33
25.30.0
25.325.3
Auto7.4
Teleop12.4
End5.4
blue by 5.4
30.70.0
30.730.7
Auto9.3
Teleop14.1
End7.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
98%Breach odds87%Breach odds
Capture
72%Capture odds18%Capture odds