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Red111
319321.4
162931.9
107121.7
Blue109
112630.6
265620.5
170825.7
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9299050150200250111109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1629
Unranked
31.90.0
31.931.9
Auto11.2
Teleop17.4
End3.3
red by 1.3
1126
Unranked
30.60.0
30.630.6
Auto8.2
Teleop17.5
End4.9
Second
1071
Unranked
21.70.0
21.721.7
Auto7.3
Teleop10.6
End3.8
blue by 4.0
1708
Unranked
25.70.0
25.725.7
Auto7.0
Teleop13.5
End5.1
Third
3193
Unranked
21.40.0
21.421.4
Auto3.8
Teleop15.1
End2.5
red by 0.8
2656
Unranked
20.50.0
20.520.5
Auto4.5
Teleop11.1
End5.0