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Red315
76676.0
971123.0
592474.5
Blue378
11597.5
641876.3
192100.5
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions293292250350315378

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
971
#2
123.00.5
122.5123.0
Auto25.8
Teleop53.6
End43.6
red by 22.5
192
#16
100.50.0
101.8101.8
Auto10.0
Teleop40.1
End50.3
Second
766
#28
76.00.5
75.576.0
Auto13.2
Teleop39.8
End23.1
blue by 21.5
115
#24
97.50.0
98.998.9
Auto11.2
Teleop46.8
End39.5
Third
5924
#10
74.50.5
74.074.5
Auto5.6
Teleop46.8
End22.1
blue by 1.8
76.30.0
77.777.7
Auto8.0
Teleop38.5
End29.8