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Red255
177154.9
241599.0
297488.8
Blue211
634077.5
399863.7
590063.5
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2572100100300400500255211

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
99.00.8
97.196.3
Auto12.5
Teleop49.6
End36.9
red by 21.6
6340
#11
77.50.5
78.077.4
Auto9.3
Teleop34.7
End33.5
Second
2974
#17
88.80.8
86.886.0
Auto5.8
Teleop42.4
End40.6
red by 25.0
63.70.4
64.263.7
Auto9.3
Teleop36.6
End17.8
Third
1771
#25
54.90.8
53.052.2
Auto6.8
Teleop36.7
End11.4
blue by 8.6
5900
#19
63.50.4
63.963.5
Auto4.0
Teleop29.4
End30.1