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Red255
574446.6
3140B46.3
4265B44.2
Blue305
381492.2
384371.8
5492B46.3
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1362350300400500600700800255305

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5744
Unranked
46.60.0
46.646.6
Auto9.6
Teleop35.2
End1.8
blue by 45.6
3814
Unranked
92.20.0
92.292.2
Auto11.1
Teleop40.2
End40.9
Second
3140B
Unranked
46.30.0
46.346.3
Auto6.3
Teleop21.0
End19.0
blue by 25.5
3843
Unranked
71.80.0
71.871.8
Auto9.9
Teleop34.8
End27.0
Third
4265B
Unranked
44.20.0
44.244.2
Auto7.4
Teleop26.0
End10.8
blue by 2.1
5492B
Unranked
46.30.0
46.346.3
Auto4.6
Teleop21.9
End19.7