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Red395
395866.2
6763110.6
95100.6
Blue286
151791.4
669075.2
287679.8
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions294250100200400500395286

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
110.60.5
109.1109.6
Auto13.0
Teleop52.6
End45.0
red by 19.3
1517
#11
91.41.0
90.291.1
Auto11.0
Teleop36.2
End44.1
Second
95
#14
100.60.5
99.099.5
Auto8.9
Teleop48.8
End43.0
red by 20.8
2876
#15
79.81.0
78.679.5
Auto11.1
Teleop40.0
End28.7
Third
3958
#17
66.20.5
64.665.1
Auto7.9
Teleop31.8
End26.5
blue by 9.0
75.21.0
74.074.9
Auto9.3
Teleop28.0
End37.9