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Red354
440360.9
3478118.2
315894.8
Blue210
435578.6
666669.1
570548.3
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3021900100400500600354210

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
118.20.8
117.4118.2
Auto20.5
Teleop50.4
End47.4
red by 39.7
4355
#18
78.60.2
78.378.6
Auto10.6
Teleop32.6
End35.4
Second
94.80.8
93.994.8
Auto12.5
Teleop41.8
End40.5
red by 25.6
69.10.2
68.969.1
Auto8.2
Teleop37.5
End23.4
Third
4403
#19
60.90.8
60.160.9
Auto4.1
Teleop44.6
End12.1
red by 12.6
5705
#31
48.30.3
48.048.3
Auto8.6
Teleop31.5
End8.2