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Red263
583455.0
4476110.0
86591.4
Blue205
663278.5
491493.6
565247.6
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2812100100400500263205

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
110.00.1
110.0110.2
Auto16.3
Teleop46.0
End47.7
red by 16.4
93.60.1
90.089.9
Auto7.3
Teleop44.4
End41.9
Second
865
#13
91.40.1
91.491.6
Auto7.8
Teleop46.0
End37.6
red by 13.0
6632
#17
78.50.1
74.974.8
Auto10.1
Teleop36.2
End32.2
Third
5834
#25
55.00.1
55.055.2
Auto4.0
Teleop28.6
End22.5
red by 7.4
5652
#23
47.60.1
44.043.9
Auto8.4
Teleop23.1
End16.1