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Red165
77291.7
565213.2
4525105.4
Blue215
299489.8
651369.4
651451.8
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions229243100150200300350400450165215

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
105.44.5
113.4108.9
Auto11.9
Teleop49.5
End44.0
red by 15.5
2994
#10
89.81.3
94.593.3
Auto10.2
Teleop34.1
End45.5
Second
772
#6
91.74.5
90.686.2
Auto14.2
Teleop35.8
End41.7
red by 22.3
69.41.1
80.579.3
Auto9.9
Teleop24.7
End34.8
Third
5652
#41
13.24.9
15.710.8
Auto5.2
Teleop12.9
End-5.0
blue by 38.6
6514
#20
51.81.3
54.152.8
Auto8.0
Teleop30.7
End13.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Rotor
0%Rotor oddsMissed0%Rotor oddsMissed
Pressure
0%Pressure oddsMissed0%Pressure oddsMissed