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Red359
591143.3
507699.5
130596.4
Blue215
542871.0
656458.0
509255.6
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2591840100300400500359215

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
99.51.6
98.399.9
Auto13.4
Teleop41.4
End44.6
red by 28.5
5428
#11
71.00.7
71.071.7
Auto9.2
Teleop33.5
End28.3
Second
96.41.6
95.296.9
Auto11.1
Teleop49.2
End36.2
red by 38.4
6564
#10
58.00.7
58.158.8
Auto10.3
Teleop34.9
End12.9
Third
5911
#25
43.31.6
42.143.7
Auto8.6
Teleop30.8
End3.9
blue by 12.2
5092
#20
55.60.7
55.656.3
Auto8.7
Teleop28.7
End18.1