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Red194
646551.5
545099.2
281191.0
Blue300
263579.9
634396.1
597762.6
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions259261200220240280300320340194300

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
99.21.2
101.199.9
Auto10.9
Teleop44.9
End43.3
red by 3.1
96.11.0
98.597.5
Auto6.8
Teleop45.3
End44.0
Second
2811
#11
91.01.2
93.091.8
Auto9.6
Teleop42.3
End39.1
red by 11.1
2635
#17
79.91.0
82.381.2
Auto11.1
Teleop32.4
End36.4
Third
6465
#15
51.51.2
53.452.2
Auto4.1
Teleop23.9
End23.5
blue by 11.1
5977
#18
62.61.0
65.064.0
Auto2.1
Teleop31.3
End29.2