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Quarterfinal 4-12017 Texas UIL State Championship
Red395
613385.8
541481.4
3005112.4
Blue316
4587117.4
635775.2
5892111.2
43%Model gave it57%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2913280100200400500600700395316

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3005
#12
112.40.0
112.4→112.4
Auto13.0
Teleop46.8
End52.6
blue by 4.9
4587
#16
117.40.0
117.4→117.4
Auto12.3
Teleop54.3
End50.8
Second
6133
#14
85.80.0
85.8→85.8
Auto11.5
Teleop38.6
End35.7
blue by 25.4
5892
#28
111.20.0
111.2→111.2
Auto10.6
Teleop47.3
End53.3
Third
5414
#4
81.40.0
81.4→81.4
Auto8.5
Teleop40.9
End32.0
red by 6.2
6357
#7
75.20.0
75.2→75.2
Auto8.1
Teleop35.8
End31.3