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Red395
595766.8
1885122.0
384113.0
Blue255
1598100.7
126299.6
527972.6
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions326276100150200250300350400450500395255

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
122.00.2
122.2122.0
Auto13.5
Teleop52.8
End55.8
red by 21.3
100.70.3
99.499.1
Auto9.9
Teleop35.9
End54.9
Second
384
#11
113.00.2
113.2113.0
Auto10.9
Teleop58.0
End44.1
red by 13.5
99.60.3
98.297.9
Auto11.7
Teleop42.5
End45.3
Third
5957
#35
66.80.2
67.066.8
Auto6.8
Teleop32.0
End28.1
blue by 5.7
5279
#26
72.60.3
71.270.9
Auto10.3
Teleop35.8
End26.4