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Red395
3792149.9
2556143.8
3844123.5
Blue126
4965152.9
4451177.1
5045128.6
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions330324150200250300350400450395126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
149.90.5
147.0147.5
Auto16.2
Teleop112.9
End22.8
blue by 27.2
177.10.1
177.4177.3
Auto23.3
Teleop128.6
End21.1
Second
143.80.2
142.2142.4
Auto15.0
Teleop111.1
End17.2
blue by 9.1
152.90.4
152.3152.7
Auto17.3
Teleop114.2
End19.6
Third
3844
#13
123.50.3
121.8122.0
Auto19.6
Teleop91.7
End13.1
blue by 5.1
5045
#18
128.60.2
128.3128.5
Auto19.5
Teleop97.4
End8.2