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Red470
1072150.2
1323230.9
3476207.4
Blue270
1296163.5
2655177.2
1533200.4
76%Model gave it24%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4363120100200500600700800470270

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1323
Unranked
230.90.1
230.6230.8
Auto27.1
Teleop165.7
End36.6
red by 30.6
1533
Unranked
200.40.3
199.8200.1
Auto24.1
Teleop144.8
End33.1
Second
3476
Unranked
207.40.2
207.0207.1
Auto25.0
Teleop144.5
End37.1
red by 30.1
2655
Unranked
177.20.1
177.2177.2
Auto24.7
Teleop135.6
End16.8
Third
1072
Unranked
150.20.2
150.5150.2
Auto20.7
Teleop117.7
End10.6
blue by 13.2
1296
Unranked
163.50.2
163.1163.3
Auto19.0
Teleop127.9
End17.0