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Red353
868188.0
1747194.9
3936133.5
Blue192
1720149.2
1741182.9
5188159.1
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions378333100200300500600353192

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
194.90.0
194.9194.9
Auto24.9
Teleop148.8
End20.3
red by 12.0
182.90.0
182.9182.9
Auto23.0
Teleop129.0
End29.3
Second
868
#9
188.00.2
188.1188.0
Auto23.2
Teleop135.4
End25.8
red by 28.9
5188
#11
159.10.4
158.7159.1
Auto19.4
Teleop116.9
End23.8
Third
3936
#17
133.50.0
133.5133.5
Auto16.8
Teleop98.2
End15.2
blue by 15.7
1720
#21
149.20.1
149.3149.2
Auto18.6
Teleop106.7
End22.0