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Red292
292121.6
2171147.5
503170.8
Blue368
6721118.2
3176144.4
5484140.5
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions304309200250350400292368

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
503
#9
170.89.5
125.6135.0
Auto23.6
Teleop129.3
End18.6
red by 26.4
3176
#19
144.47.6
117.1124.7
Auto19.5
Teleop106.7
End16.5
Second
147.510.7
101.4112.2
Auto19.0
Teleop110.8
End20.6
red by 7.0
5484
#20
140.51.2
132.8134.0
Auto18.2
Teleop110.6
End11.9
Third
292
#38
121.61.1
114.5115.6
Auto21.3
Teleop90.7
End12.2
red by 3.4
6721
#33
118.26.1
114.4120.5
Auto18.9
Teleop84.7
End13.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
44%Auto Quest oddsEarned35%Auto Quest oddsMissed
Face the Boss
6%Face the Boss oddsMissed3%Face the Boss oddsMissed