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Red341
611130.5
623169.6
5115133.5
Blue172
620144.7
4541159.2
4821122.5
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions343332200250300400450500341172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
623
#5
169.60.6
166.6167.1
Auto18.4
Teleop128.7
End25.3
red by 10.4
159.20.5
158.7159.2
Auto19.3
Teleop122.1
End20.1
Second
5115
#17
133.50.5
130.9131.4
Auto17.7
Teleop105.1
End13.1
blue by 11.2
620
#10
144.70.7
143.9144.7
Auto19.1
Teleop105.5
End23.3
Third
611
#36
130.50.1
130.3130.2
Auto17.2
Teleop97.1
End17.7
red by 8.1
4821
#19
122.50.0
122.5122.5
Auto15.2
Teleop92.6
End15.7