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Red307
33188.9
302199.6
1504130.5
Blue239
5436168.5
3538200.6
51144.4
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions35332102006008001,0001,2001,400307239

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
302
#29
199.60.9
210.1209.3
Auto19.1
Teleop163.0
End12.9
blue by 1.0
3538
#24
200.61.6
207.7206.1
Auto21.2
Teleop159.3
End20.6
Second
33
#8
188.90.7
198.1197.4
Auto22.3
Teleop142.9
End21.4
red by 20.4
5436
#27
168.50.0
170.0170.0
Auto22.0
Teleop125.8
End20.1
Third
1504
#10
130.50.2
131.7131.9
Auto20.2
Teleop100.8
End7.5
blue by 13.9
51
#15
144.41.1
149.4148.3
Auto18.7
Teleop111.2
End12.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
87%Auto Quest oddsEarned71%Auto Quest oddsEarned
Face the Boss
16%Face the Boss oddsMissed10%Face the Boss oddsMissed