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Red309
1711150.3
226169.2
5314127.6
Blue356
3767157.7
5114172.7
5560137.1
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3153710100200500600700309356

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
226
#6
169.20.5
168.7169.2
Auto23.9
Teleop124.4
End21.1
blue by 3.5
172.70.4
172.3172.7
Auto20.5
Teleop125.4
End27.5
Second
150.30.6
149.7150.3
Auto16.3
Teleop121.5
End15.0
blue by 7.4
157.70.5
157.2157.7
Auto19.2
Teleop123.3
End15.4
Third
5314
#20
127.60.6
127.1127.6
Auto18.2
Teleop100.5
End11.3
blue by 9.4
5560
#24
137.10.4
136.7137.1
Auto15.6
Teleop103.8
End19.6