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Red365
2771187.8
3620174.1
5501179.4
Blue289
3534172.8
5205143.8
5167132.5
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4192720100200500600700800365289

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2771
#10
187.80.0
187.8187.8
Auto23.3
Teleop140.0
End22.3
red by 14.9
3534
#18
172.80.0
172.8172.8
Auto18.4
Teleop133.2
End20.6
Second
5501
#16
179.40.0
179.4179.4
Auto17.2
Teleop135.7
End26.2
red by 35.6
143.80.0
143.8143.8
Auto20.8
Teleop109.2
End17.2
Third
174.10.0
174.1174.1
Auto22.2
Teleop130.4
End24.6
red by 41.6
5167
#23
132.50.0
132.5132.5
Auto14.8
Teleop100.5
End14.7