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Red207
6067141.3
5156113.6
6493114.3
Blue389
6753129.9
5424153.8
5982152.3
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2653120100200400500600207389

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6067
#17
141.35.6
113.1118.7
Auto16.4
Teleop101.2
End27.6
blue by 12.5
153.80.4
145.1145.5
Auto22.5
Teleop114.3
End15.0
Second
6493
#32
114.35.0
111.8116.7
Auto12.6
Teleop91.5
End8.9
blue by 38.1
5982
#10
152.35.9
120.4126.3
Auto18.2
Teleop111.0
End25.6
Third
5156
#31
113.65.4
108.1113.6
Auto13.7
Teleop92.2
End5.8
blue by 16.2
6753
#14
129.91.5
127.7126.2
Auto17.4
Teleop98.7
End14.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
17%Auto Quest oddsMissed27%Auto Quest oddsEarned
Face the Boss
5%Face the Boss oddsMissed4%Face the Boss oddsMissed